Hello, friends!
The third wave of Covid 19 had a major impact in India.The number of cases is rising so rapidly because of the Omicron variant that it has already surpassed the second wave.But the interesting thing is that India is not the only place it is happening.If you look at France's Daily Cases chart, you'd see the same thing.The same thing is in Argentina's chart.Mexico is going through the same thing.Australia's condition is also the same.Although, Australia is a very interesting case because it was a country that had kept itself locked out from the rest of the world for the entire 2 years since Covid 19 first started.It was very difficult for foreigners to enter Australia,that's why in the last 2 years the number of cases was almost negligible.But no sooner than they tried to open up the country that the number of cases went up so quickly it's unbelievable.If you see USA's story you'd get the same thing there.
The ongoing wave of Covid 19 in the USA,it is rising so much in comparison to the last waves,that there are almost 1 million cases every day in the USA.But despite all these,the good news is that scientists and experts around the world are claiming,that it is the Endgame of Covid 19.
Come, let's find out the latest updates in today's blog. The Omicron variant was being assumed to be a mild variant.That it's a less threatening variant as compared to the Delta variant.Delta variant was the variant because of which we witnessed the deadly second wave in India.Then it was an assumption of the scientists and experts.But now, 1.5 months later,several studies have been published by various research groups in various countries,that prove this.
The first study was from the University of Edinburgh.Edinburgh is the capital of Scotland.They had used the National Surveillance Data to compare the Omicron and Delta infections.The time period of their study was from 23rd November to 19th December.They hadn't analysed many cases,but in the cases that they did analyse, they found that the risk of hospitalisation due to the Omicron variant was 65% lower than that from the Delta variant.The chances of you needing to be admitted to the hospital were reduced by 2/3rd in the Omicron variant.
The next study conducted at a much larger scale was from South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases.They had analysed 160,000 patients,and over a larger time period from 1st October to 6th December,and they found that if you get infected with the Omicron variant,you have a 70% lesser chance of having severe disease.
Additionally, 80% lower chance of hospitalisation, according to them. Obviously, their sample was from South Africa,but they had also said that if you do have to get admitted to the hospital,the risk of contracting a severe disease after hospitalisation,is not so different than that in other variants.Thankfully, in addition to the estimates from the researchwe have some practical, real-life data as well.
We can use it to analyse what actually happened when the fourth wave hit South Africa.I'm calling it the Fourth Wave because the wave in South Africa due to the Omicron variant was actually their fourth wave.In this chart, you can see it very clearly,there have been four waves over the last 2 years in South Africa.The fourth wave has peaked at the highest.But it is also the narrowest wave too.It means that it lasted for the least duration of time.And you're seeing it right, currently, the cases in South Africa have started receding.So the wave due to the Omicron variant has receded rapidly as well.It has almost died down in South Africa.But it is interesting to see the death rates in South Africa over the course of these four waves.
The number of deaths during the same time period.The number of deaths in the fourth wave has the lowest peak.It shows that the number of cases was the most in the fourth wave,but the number of deaths was the lowest in South Africa.Some people interpret this to claim that it might have happened in South Africa,but it might be a different scenario for other countries due to other reasons.Whether that reason is the climate,or that the South African people have developed a kind of immunity that might not be seen in other countries,so it is very useful to look at the data from other countries too.Interestingly, almost the same thing is being seen in the UK and the USA too.Here, you can see the graph of the cases in the UK.The peak of their fourth wave is really high,but look at the graph of deaths here,this period had the least number of deaths,if you compare it with the previous waves.The cases have started receding in the UK too.It means that the UK has reached the peak of the Omicron wave.
A similar trend follows in the USA as well, although the deaths aren't as dramatically low as they were in the UK and South Africa.But the death rate isn't very high as compared to that of the previous waves.But obviously, if you look at the cases in the USA they are so high.As compared to the previous waves.Coming back to the studies, the effect of the Omicron variant was tested on rats as well.The researchers from the Molecular Virology Research Group of the University of Liverpool published a paper,in it, they mention that when the variant was tested on the rats and mice they found that the Omicron variant caused a less severe disease among the rats,and the rats that did get infected by the Omicron,lost only a little weight,have a lower viral load,and they experience less-severe pneumonia.Similarly, a study was conducted on hamsters that had the same conclusion. But more important than all these studies is the Update from 12th January.Citing the study from South California,CDC made the statement that among the infected patients,the chances of death are 91% lowerif they are infected by the Omicron variant,as compared to the Delta variant.
This study wasn't conducted by a University,but was literally endorsed by the CDC.CDC or the Centre for Disease Control and Prevention is a government agency in the USA.So basically, it is a statement from a government agency of the USA.In this study, more than 50,000 Omicron cases,and almost 17,000 Delta cases were analysed. From 30th November to 1st January.Its conclusion wasn't limited to the 91% lower death rate in Omicron cases,it also included a 53% lower risk of hospitalisation,and if some people do need to get hospitalised,they have a 75% lower chance of being put into the Intensive Care Unit.The need for the ICU.So this is positive news basically.That the death rate of the Omicron variant is so low,and the risk of hospitalisation is so low.But at the same time, this came with a warning that one shouldn't forget that the Omicron variant is much more transmissible than compared to the Delta variant.It spreads very easily among people.There were many estimated for it,2 to 3 times more transmissible than the Delta variant. The scientists came out with some data last weak,that according to them, the Omicron variant was 105% more transmissible than the Delta variant.
This is the reason why in the places it is spreading,and the graph of Covid 19 cases that it causes,is much steeper.Its curve is increasing exponentially.Because the Omicron variant spreads so easily.A very interesting reason is said to be the cause for it,why the Omicron variant is less deadly but more transmissible?The thing is that the Coronavirus infections begin from the nose or the mouth.The infection then spreads to your throat.And in the mild infection,it doesn't proceed beyond it.But once the coronavirus reaches your lungs,it causes serious damage.It's being said that the Omicron variant infects the cells in your throat only.And the variant multiplies there.It doesn't reach the lungs in most cases.So if a virus is multiplying in the throat,it becomes more transmissible.This is why Omicron is more transmissible.But if any variant of the coronavirus,gets into the lung tissue,it becomes much more deadly for you there,but it isn't easy to transmit from there.So the transmission decreases once it reaches the lungs.The same thing was observed by a group of American and Japanese scientists,when they infected hamsters and rats with the Omicron variant.They found that there is less lung damage in the rats, due to Omicron and there is a lower chance of their deaths.
A similar fact was confirmed by the researchers of the University of Hong Kong when the compared the spread of Omicron and Delta in 12 lung samples and they found that Omicron grows less rapidly in the lungs,compared to Delta and the other variants.So what was the conclusion of all these?The Chief Medical Advisor of the President of the USA,said that the Omicron variant is almost unstoppable.Irrespective of how hard you try to stop it,it wouldn't be stopped.It will infect a lot of people.And everyone will eventually be infected.
Everyone will have to go through this.Because it is so highly transmissible.Dr Jaiprakash said the same thing,he is the Chairperson of the Scientific Advisory Committee,at the Indian Council of Medical Research.And it isn't bad news,because according to him, the majority of people wouldn't even know that they were infected.It is being believed that 80% of people will get infected but they'll be unaware of it.Because it will be so mild."Majority of us will not know that we have been infected.Probably, more than 80% will not even know that we are (infected). Dr Muliyil, have we given up our Covid policy?is it now inevitable that we'll all get it?Is that what you are saying?That is correct.That's why it's being said that it is perhaps the Endgame of the Covid 19.And that this Pandemic would soon turn into an Endemic.
Thank you very much!
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